Zena is purpose-built to price options on prediction-market contracts. Standard options math (Black–Scholes and its variants) was designed for stocks — it breaks down on contracts that resolve to a fixed yes/no at a known date, exactly when most of an option's value is decided. Zena is built for that setting and prices it correctly.
Zena's pricing was validated out-of-sample across a 50-market panel spanning $6.4B of cumulative volume and 19 categories — from elections and Fed policy to crypto and sports. Across that panel its option prices track the true settlement value, and it carries the institutional guarantees an exchange needs: prices are arbitrage-free and every option can be fully hedged.
Zena delivers a fair price and hedge ratios for any option on any event contract through a single drop-in pricing endpoint — no changes to the matching engine, oracle, or settlement layer. Full methodology and results are available under NDA.